Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AB 0xab29…6613 other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+20%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%20W / 44L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$16
crypto 20% −$2
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +41.1% +27.6% 38% 38% +11.9%
≤30d 22 +26.7% +14.6% 36% 36% -4.2%
≤90d 30 +24.6% +12.8% 40% 37% +5.5%
all 64 +18.1% +6.9% 31% 27% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 27% -4.1%
10% -3.4% 25% -13.3%
15% -12.7% 20% -21.7%
20% -21.3% 20% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses20 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage164d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal to win the second half? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Senegal leading at halftime? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +550%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +352%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $4 +$5 +131%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $2 +$3 +154%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $1 $0 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 18 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 20 $1 +$6 +649%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal to win the second half? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 37h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 40h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Qatar leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.85 · official $3.85 (match) · 110 history records