Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab2a…30ed sports 256 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,333 (-17%) realized −$9,884 · open −$449
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%112W / 142L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$746est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$926
7 days+$1,521
14 days+$496
30 days+$2,290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$5,999
other 21% −$5,231
politics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +10.4% -0.1% 65% 65% +24.1%
≤30d 61 -1.9% -11.2% 54% 52% +7.2%
≤90d 254 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 42% -26.0%
all 254 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 42% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 42% -26.0%
10% -30.3% 41% -33.1%
15% -37.0% 39% -39.6%
20% -43.2% 33% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$221 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9,884
Unrealized−$449
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses112 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$746
Open positions2
Markets (closed)254 / 256
History coverage85d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 27¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B OG 70¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) Jun 24 $151 +$71 +47%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 24 $138 +$65 +47%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $72 +$82 +113%
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 24 $888 +$937 +106%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5) Jun 23 $233 +$80 +34%
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5) Jun 23 $63 +$26 +41%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 23 $151 +$59 +39%
Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) Jun 23 $152 −$152 -100%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 23 $151 +$92 +61%
Map Handicap: ECHO (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) Jun 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Map Handicap: LILMIX (-1.5) vs ReThink (+1.5) Jun 22 $150 +$80 +54%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 22 $152 +$112 +73%
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs Prestige (+1.5) Jun 22 $151 +$72 +48%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $86 +$44 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $201 −$4 -2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $152 +$111 +73%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 19 $155 +$170 +110%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $152 +$111 +73%
Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) Jun 19 $147 −$145 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $151 +$52 +34%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $152 +$102 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $66 −$65 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $95 −$93 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $300 −$290 -96%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $152 +$83 +55%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $250 −$247 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,035 +$965 +93%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 13 $105 +$62 +59%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $251 +$162 +65%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $124 −$122 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $152 +$116 +76%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $440 +$210 +48%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $192 +$288 +150%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Minkens finest (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $146 −$142 -98%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 12 $267 −$134 -50%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $439 −$435 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $141 +$14 +10%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $522 −$513 -98%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $589 −$581 -98%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $309 +$161 +52%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $32 −$32 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $134 −$132 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $212 −$12 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 27¢ $307 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 70¢ $151 7h
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $38 8h
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) BUY MIBR Academy 67¢ $68 8h
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) BUY MIBR Academy 67¢ $26 8h
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) BUY MIBR Academy 66¢ $19 8h
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) BUY Sharks 68¢ $138 12h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $73 17h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 47¢ $52 17h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 46¢ $20 17h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 45¢ $202 27h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 47¢ $265 27h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 45¢ $9 27h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 47¢ $70 27h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 47¢ $191 27h
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 8¢ $5 27h
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 30¢ $27 27h
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 29¢ $4 27h
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 8¢ $4 27h
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5) BUY OG 74¢ $213 33h
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5) BUY OG 73¢ $20 33h
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5) BUY FOKUS 71¢ $35 33h
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5) BUY FOKUS 71¢ $28 34h
Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) BUY Eternal Fire 69¢ $152 34h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY 9INE 69¢ $40 37h
Map Handicap: ECHO (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 68¢ $71 38h
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) BUY AM Gaming 57¢ $19 39h
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) BUY AM Gaming 57¢ $29 39h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 60¢ $28 40h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 60¢ $7 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.66 (match) · 882 history records