Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab2b…b395 crypto 93 markets active 5d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-7%) realized −$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$145
politics 1% $0
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -42.5% -48.0% 47% 29% -34.6%
≤30d 32 -34.2% -40.4% 34% 25% -41.6%
≤90d 91 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 40% -22.0%
all 91 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 40% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 40% -22.0%
10% -23.4% 27% -29.5%
15% -30.8% 18% -36.3%
20% -37.6% 11% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage64d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$10 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 28 $56 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $24 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 28 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $35 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 28 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 04 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 04 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 04 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 04 $63 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 04 $11 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 04 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 04 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 04 $16 +$8 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 04 $3 +$5 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.10 · official $12.10 (match) · 368 history records