Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab2d…b1aa other 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23,114 (+9%) realized +$22,697 · open +$417
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate77%59W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$2,199per market
Trades / day215.5pace
Fees−$1,627est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$4,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1,300
other 33% +$936
crypto 1% −$2
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +14.0% +3.2% 73% 8% -8.7%
≤30d 77 +10.5% -0.0% 77% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 77 +10.5% -0.0% 77% 6% -8.8%
all 77 +10.5% -0.0% 77% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 6% -8.8%
10% -9.6% 6% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -18.3% 4% -25.5%
20% -26.3% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,917) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$14 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.04 per $1 lost it wins $8.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$4,044
Realized+$22,697
Unrealized+$417
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses59 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1,627
Open positions38
Markets (closed)77 / 114
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$2,199
Trades / day215.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 81¢ 94¢ $2,203 $2,558 +$355 (+16%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 58¢ 76¢ $689 $894 +$205 (+30%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $182 $172 −$10 (-6%)
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $105 $109 +$4 (+3%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 8¢ $105 $99 −$6 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 39¢ 44¢ $61 $69 +$8 (+12%)
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 65¢ 88¢ $36 $49 +$12 (+35%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $203 $45 −$158 (-78%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 26¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 53¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 92¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? No 70¢ 82¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 60¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+57%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $149 +$2 +1%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $450 +$22 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $330 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $171 +$12 +7%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $337 −$25 -7%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $366 −$34 -9%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 17 $155 −$10 -6%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 17 $1,195 +$19 +2%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3,827 +$123 +3%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $475 +$5 +1%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $432 −$14 -3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $339 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $93 +$8 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $152 −$10 -7%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $334 −$15 -4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $67 +$4 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $23 +$2 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $22,267 +$190 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $381 +$9 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,480 −$25 -2%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1,233 +$26 +2%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $411 +$110 +27%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5,564 +$48 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $460 −$6 -1%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will USA win the World Cup? Jun 14 $0 +$2 +386%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1,090 +$19 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $992 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1,608 +$10 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 13 $1,068 +$4 +0%
Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +491%
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $4 +$10 +247%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2,759 +$42 +2%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5,681 +$118 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2,477 +$22 +1%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2,198 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $854 +$9 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 27¢ $1 3m
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $4 49m
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $192 51m
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 70¢ $8 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 77¢ $120 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 73¢ $2 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 73¢ $22 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 73¢ $90 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 68¢ $17 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 66¢ $50 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 64¢ $77 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 51¢ $18 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 47¢ $47 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 52¢ $81 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 47¢ $74 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 43¢ $68 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 49¢ $49 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,043.64 · official $4,033.65 (match) · 3500 history records