Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab37…7b61 sports 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$661 (-13%) realized −$646 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%70W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$23
14 days−$92
30 days−$605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$673
other 3% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.3% -5.6% 62% 48% -12.9%
≤30d 87 -3.7% -12.8% 55% 41% -22.4%
≤90d 124 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 44% -22.7%
all 124 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 44% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 44% -22.7%
10% -21.9% 35% -30.1%
15% -29.5% 23% -36.9%
20% -36.4% 16% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$646
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses70 / 54
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage41d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Tommy Paul 85¢ 72¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Elina Svitolina 29¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $62 −$16 -26%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $10 +$8 +78%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $37 +$9 +25%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Stevenson/Willis Jun 19 $16 +$10 +62%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $63 +$6 +10%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $122 −$5 -4%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $43 −$11 -26%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $12 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 −$3 -16%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $29 +$3 +11%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $28 $0 +1%
Libema Open (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Neel/Olmos Jun 13 $19 +$11 +57%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $20 −$11 -57%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 +$5 +30%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $12 +$3 +24%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $58 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $6 +$3 +46%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $62 −$18 -30%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $63 −$15 -24%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $169 −$39 -23%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $74 −$49 -67%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $35 −$12 -36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $70 −$8 -12%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $171 +$10 +6%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $56 +$6 +10%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $25 +$42 +164%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $31 +$10 +32%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$35 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $167 −$20 -12%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $40 −$6 -15%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $31 −$20 -63%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 05 $18 +$4 +24%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $14 +$4 +29%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Dabrowski/Stefani Jun 05 $13 +$1 +8%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $8 +$4 +52%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 05 $45 −$15 -32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $20 +$7 +37%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $22 −$2 -8%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $90 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 85¢ $30 13m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 29¢ $8 46m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 28¢ $1 48m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 27¢ $1 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 42¢ $18 50m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala SELL Elina Svitolina 41¢ $24 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 59¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $29 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 94¢ $18 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $15 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $46 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 80¢ $20 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 70¢ $7 4h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Stevenson/Willis SELL Helioevaara/Patten 100¢ $26 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $30 4h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Stevenson/Willis BUY Helioevaara/Patten 61¢ $16 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Talia Gibson 17¢ $5 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 21¢ $6 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 78¢ $48 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 59¢ $37 5h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Talia Gibson 41¢ $17 5h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 47¢ $20 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 39¢ $2 6h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 62¢ $22 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $22 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 52¢ $34 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 48¢ $34 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.25 · official $25.25 (match) · 387 history records