Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab37…c1ce sports 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$55 (+6%) realized +$53 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%62W / 76L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$21
14 days+$27
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$8
other 43% +$53
politics 5% +$7
culture 1% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +143.0% +119.9% 75% 75% +82.0%
≤30d 12 +21.8% +10.2% 42% 42% +12.2%
≤90d 40 -19.1% -26.8% 35% 32% -19.3%
all 138 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 43% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 43% -3.6%
10% -18.6% 43% -12.8%
15% -26.5% 40% -21.2%
20% -33.7% 37% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses62 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)138 / 150
History coverage281d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 19¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +448%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 08 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $5 +$11 +206%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $3 −$2 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$7 +143%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Colombia vs. France end in a draw? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-29? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-26? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 30 $10 −$4 -36%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $3 +$4 +133%
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants Mar 26 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $7 +$8 +113%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 22 $5 +$2 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Zverev Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Stefon Diggs: Anytime Touchdown Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $4 +$2 +61%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $2 +$3 +166%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $3 +$1 +24%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Mar 17 $3 $0 -12%
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Mar 16 $2 +$2 +96%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $2 +$2 +122%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 14 $2 +$1 +75%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented b Mar 09 $1 +$3 +218%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $1 +$2 +223%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $4 +$8 +178%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Great Britain Mar 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 31h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 20¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $16 6d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 18¢ $1 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 18¢ $3 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 11d
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 11d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 11d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 12d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 14d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 15d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 17d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 20d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 21d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 24d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $10 24d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 48¢ $4 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.24 · official $43.25 (match) · 536 history records