Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab38…89ae crypto 722 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$724 (-1%) realized −$724 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%513W / 209L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$152
14 days+$198
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,422
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.5% -9.9% 78% 58% -6.2%
≤30d 56 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 52% -9.2%
≤90d 383 -22.1% -29.5% 57% 34% -18.8%
all 722 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 42% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 42% -11.3%
10% -20.6% 22% -19.8%
15% -28.3% 12% -27.5%
20% -35.3% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$49 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$724
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses513 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)722 / 722
History coverage110d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 722 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $202 +$36 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $201 +$17 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $403 −$48 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$51 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$18 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$57 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $61 −$47 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$14 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$12 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$30 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$33 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$23 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$80 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$39 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$50 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$28 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $203 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $203 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $204 +$74 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $142 +$28 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$14 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $102 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $406 −$94 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $81 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $303 −$284 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $153 +$57 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 04 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $202 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $122 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $202 +$15 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $239 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $218 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $321 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $302 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $154 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $120 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $45 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $61 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $65 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $65 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $132 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1730 history records