Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xab38…5de1 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$8
other 21% +$1
crypto 3% −$1
weather 2% +$3
politics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 26% 4% -8.5%
≤90d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 26% 4% -8.5%
all 31 +2.0% -7.7% 39% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -8.3%
10% -16.5% 3% -17.1%
15% -24.6% 3% -25.1%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage491d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $70 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $31 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $49 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $55 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $68 +$3 +4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $58 +$8 +13%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $49 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $44 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 29 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20? Mar 03 $8 +$3 +45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 26 $3 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $53 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $53 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 32h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $34 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $7 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $7 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $20 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $30 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $52 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $52 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $7 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $3 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $39 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $49 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records