Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab3c…0780 crypto 342 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate81%278W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$25
other 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +2.0% -7.7% 92% 8% -11.0%
≤30d 171 +2.0% -7.7% 92% 8% -11.0%
≤90d 342 -0.8% -10.2% 81% 21% -12.6%
all 342 -0.8% -10.2% 81% 21% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 21% -12.6%
10% -18.8% 11% -21.0%
15% -26.7% 7% -28.6%
20% -33.9% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses278 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 989 history records