Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab45…f5e0 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$79 (+1%) realized +$71 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$221
other 3% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.0% -10.5% 55% 18% -11.3%
≤30d 38 -1.0% -10.5% 55% 18% -11.3%
≤90d 38 -1.0% -10.5% 55% 18% -11.3%
all 38 -1.0% -10.5% 55% 18% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 18% -11.3%
10% -19.0% 16% -19.8%
15% -26.9% 16% -27.6%
20% -34.0% 11% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 29¢ 34¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,272 −$172 -14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $41 +$133 +325%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,180 −$108 -9%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $114 +$42 +37%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $203 +$20 +10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$4 -35%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,093 +$46 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $167 +$10 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $8 +$15 +188%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $112 +$9 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $178 +$9 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 +$13 +216%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $135 +$4 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $97 −$14 -15%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $114 +$7 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $110 +$8 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $25 +$85 +333%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 82¢ $3 5m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 82¢ $2 5m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 82¢ $1,095 5m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 41m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $23 55m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $74 56m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $115 57m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1,022 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $12 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $9 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $16 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $27 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $2 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 86¢ $0 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 87¢ $420 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 87¢ $651 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $330 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $850 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $41 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $156 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $223 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 64¢ $101 23h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 15¢ $7 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $203 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.62 · official $57.62 (match) · 111 history records