Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab47…2e73 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate51%25W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2
other 23% $0
politics 13% −$8
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +3.5% -6.3% 20% 10% -9.9%
≤90d 10 +3.5% -6.3% 20% 10% -9.9%
all 49 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -10.9%
10% -19.2% 4% -19.4%
15% -27.0% 2% -27.2%
20% -34.2% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses25 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage462d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $93 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $13 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3 +$2 +59%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 31 $2 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 30 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $4 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Momo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 27 $11 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $8 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in May? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 08 $11 $0 -3%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 25 $8 $0 -2%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 24 $8 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 22 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 21 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $12 $0 -3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday? Mar 18 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $11 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $4 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $14 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $48 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 43h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $24 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $20 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $24 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $24 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $8 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $21 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $32 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.10 · official $44.10 (match) · 149 history records