Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xab47…be54
world · 406 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$340 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$334 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$211
Realized−$334
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses108 / 267
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions31
Markets (closed)375 / 406
History coverage82d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 31 History 375 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$24
14 days+$48
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 79¢ 76¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No 72¢ 87¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+62%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 67¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+33%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+98%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 67¢ 86¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 87¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 77¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 62¢ 65¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 24¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 41¢ 24¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 46¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 38¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-45%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 54¢ 31¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 36¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $136 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$4 -6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$4 +49%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 09 $9 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$4 +51%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$15 +46%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $11 −$4 -33%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $15 −$6 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $26 +$5 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $10 +$5 +55%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $11 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$1 +16%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $81 +$17 +20%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $22 +$4 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $16 +$7 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$5 -58%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $99 +$13 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $10 +$5 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $106 −$16 -15%
Will Trump Leave China before May 13? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 31 $8 +$4 +55%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 31 $8 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 31 $5 $0 -3%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on May 22? May 31 $8 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026? May 31 $8 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 31 $50 −$1 -1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 31 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 31 $11 +$1 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 31 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 31 $51 −$24 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 31 $8 +$4 +50%
Major US official out by May 31? May 31 $7 +$4 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 31 $8 +$3 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 31 $101 +$5 +5%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch May 31 $32 +$19 +59%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 31 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 31 $8 −$1 -11%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% +$30
crypto 24% −$304
politics 14% −$17
sports 5% −$9
other 5% −$54
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 8h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $0 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 84¢ $2 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $2 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $0 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $0 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $0 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $0 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $0 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $0 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 38% -3.9%
≤30d 70 +7.8% -2.4% 63% 44% -4.2%
≤90d 375 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 22% -15.2%
all 375 -46.4% -51.5% 29% 22% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.5% 22% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -56.1% 14% -23.3%
15% -60.4% 11% -30.7%
20% -64.3% 6% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.34 · official $209.55 (match) · 3500 history records