Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AB 0xab47…2fa4 sports 80 markets active 10h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10 (+7%) realized +$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%56W / 15L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$11
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$10
other 27% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -7.9% -16.6% 62% 62% -21.4%
≤30d 71 +16.3% +5.2% 79% 79% -4.0%
≤90d 71 +16.3% +5.2% 79% 79% -4.0%
all 71 +16.3% +5.2% 79% 79% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 79% -4.0%
10% -4.9% 66% -13.2%
15% -14.0% 46% -21.6%
20% -22.5% 25% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses56 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)71 / 80
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 78¢ 74¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $4 −$3 -68%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 −$2 -55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +29%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 +$1 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +95%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +35%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 $0 +35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +46%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +21%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $3 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $4 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $3 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $2 35h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 35h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $4 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 76¢ $2 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $4 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $2 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $2 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.89 · official $15.90 (match) · 162 history records