Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab47…80eb world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate28%18W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$2
other 24% +$4
politics 19% −$6
sports 17% −$10
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 53 +0.2% -9.4% 26% 2% -9.6%
all 64 +1.8% -7.9% 28% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 8% -10.1%
10% -16.7% 6% -18.7%
15% -24.8% 5% -26.6%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses18 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage525d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 −$1 -20%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $96 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $2 $0 +24%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 27 $40 −$1 -2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $12 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 12¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.71 · official $4.00 (match) · 256 history records