Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab48…d5ca world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate29%22W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
politics 18% −$5
other 18% $0
sports 13% −$7
economics 8% −$1
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +72.0% +55.6% 28% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 70 +30.1% +17.7% 29% 7% -9.4%
all 77 +23.6% +11.8% 29% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 9% -9.8%
10% +1.1% 9% -18.5%
15% -8.7% 5% -26.3%
20% -17.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses22 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage539d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 61¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $60 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 +$6 +87%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $107 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $105 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $87 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $44 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $81 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $23 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $17 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $85 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $2 $0 +24%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $132 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.15 · official $44.34 · 369 history records