Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab50…79bd crypto 758 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,323 (-4%) realized −$3,323 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%425W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 130d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,816
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -11.6% -20.1% 47% 44% -16.3%
≤30d 189 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 46% -17.4%
≤90d 524 -10.0% -18.5% 61% 33% -16.7%
all 757 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 36% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 36% -16.0%
10% -28.0% 31% -24.1%
15% -35.0% 25% -31.4%
20% -41.3% 21% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$82 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses425 / 332
Open positions0
Markets (closed)757 / 758
History coverage130d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 757 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $320 +$595 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $158 +$177 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $95 +$186 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $151 +$93 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $89 +$58 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $210 +$149 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $125 +$66 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $63 +$38 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $47 +$18 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $226 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $115 −$41 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $95 +$47 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $78 +$58 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $210 −$210 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$55 +75%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $173 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $73 +$65 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $209 +$90 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $111 −$91 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $297 −$297 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $813 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $102 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $320 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $37 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $67 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $126 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $335 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $158 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $281 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $95 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $263 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $244 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $359 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $95 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $96 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $27.80 · 1946 history records