Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab52…172f weather 532 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$294 (-1%) realized +$152 · open −$446
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%490W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$7
14 days+$31
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$73
other 6% −$430
sports 4% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -0.7% -10.2% 94% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 420 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 506 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 506 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2,455
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$446
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses490 / 16
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions26
Markets (closed)506 / 532
History coverage33d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,618 $1,188 −$430 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $72 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 74¢ $75 $56 −$19 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $53 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $81 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$12 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$6 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $36 −$27 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $22 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $23 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $57 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $75 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $75 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $75 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $44 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $45 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $36 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $63 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $75 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $72 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,455.20 · official $2,454.95 (match) · 1618 history records