Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xab53…0293 crypto 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$875 (+8%) realized +$875 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%141W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$172
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$173
world 5% +$718
sports 1% −$36
other 0% +$8
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -21.0% -28.5% 38% 38% -0.6%
≤30d 40 -21.0% -28.5% 38% 38% -0.6%
≤90d 178 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 44% -0.8%
all 345 -17.4% -25.2% 41% 39% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 39% -5.1%
10% -32.4% 36% -14.2%
15% -38.9% 32% -22.5%
20% -44.9% 26% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$19 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$875
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses141 / 204
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)345 / 348
History coverage231d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $162 −$155 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$131 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $181 −$130 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $128 +$57 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$70 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $131 +$290 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $67 +$49 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 30 $7 +$11 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$13 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 29 $19 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 29 $91 +$24 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.62 · official $19.62 (match) · 689 history records