Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab53…f5b2 crypto 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized +$84 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%56W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day53.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$302
sports 25% +$215
other 4% −$137
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -10.6%
≤30d 110 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -10.6%
≤90d 110 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -10.6%
all 110 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 49% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 46% -19.1%
15% -29.8% 42% -27.0%
20% -36.7% 35% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$50 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses56 / 54
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage6d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day53.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 67¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 33¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $65 +$40 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $97 +$30 +31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $145 −$124 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$72 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$73 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$64 +124%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$32 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$66 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$43 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$50 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$82 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$26 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$70 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $126 +$46 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $160 +$71 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $189 +$70 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $123 +$70 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $234 −$230 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$27 +86%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $50 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $56 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $49 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $73 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 62¢ $73 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 83¢ $100 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 364 history records