Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab55…2e86 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2
other 34% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 5% −$3
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 15 -0.9% -10.3% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -0.9% -10.3% 20% 0% -9.8%
all 38 -0.8% -10.2% 37% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage392d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $26 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$1 -9%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $52 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 17 $18 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $13 $0 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 10 $19 $0 -1%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 31 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marquinhos be named the Champions League Final man of the match? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump issue 20-24 executive orders in May? May 29 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $18 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $4 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $21 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $4 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $33 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $4 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $24 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $6 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records