Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab57…e05f crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate87%79W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day68.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +2.5% -7.3% 87% 76% -10.5%
≤30d 91 +2.5% -7.3% 87% 76% -10.5%
≤90d 91 +2.5% -7.3% 87% 76% -10.5%
all 91 +2.5% -7.3% 87% 76% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 76% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 1% -19.1%
15% -24.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -31.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses79 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day68.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 88¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.15 · official $53.69 · 177 history records