Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab59…9c0e other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$849 (+19%) realized +$1,496 · open −$647
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$154
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$1,604
sports 24% −$458
crypto 12% −$221
finance 3% +$99
politics 3% −$130
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% +59.4%
≤90d 4 +55.5% +40.7% 50% 50% +33.2%
all 41 +8.8% -1.5% 22% 22% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 22% +8.9%
10% -11.0% 22% -1.5%
15% -19.6% 22% -11.0%
20% -27.4% 17% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +71% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$67 · ×6.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$1,496
Unrealized−$647
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)41 / 54
History coverage348d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $164 $188 +$24 (+15%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $148 $152 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $90 $43 −$47 (-52%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $69 $38 −$31 (-45%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $38 $34 −$3 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $46 $18 −$28 (-60%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $52 $14 −$38 (-73%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $38 $14 −$24 (-63%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $132 $2 −$130 (-98%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $110 $2 −$108 (-98%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $216 $2 −$214 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $51 $1 −$51 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $146 +$154 +105%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $24 +$57 +238%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 04 $67 −$66 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Mar 09 $92 +$158 +170%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 23 $119 −$118 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Feb 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February? Feb 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 20 $318 −$318 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Feb 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $398 +$186 +47%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Feb 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in February? Feb 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Feb 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 07 $449 −$449 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in February? Feb 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 07 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Hunter Henry win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Peloton Interactive (PTON) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 04 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Jan 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 28 $60 −$30 -50%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 26 $42 +$258 +614%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 26 $93 +$2,720 +2924%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bill Clinton charged by January 31? Jan 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Nov 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 31 $204 −$144 -71%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Aug 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Aug 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August? Aug 06 $30 +$18 +59%
XRP all time high before 2026? Aug 06 $70 +$87 +125%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 24 $80 −$51 -64%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? Jul 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? Jul 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $97 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $71 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $146 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $24 8d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 46d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 62d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 67d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 67d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 70d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 70d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 70d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 32¢ $81 71d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 77d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 79d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 79d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 79d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 6¢ $90 91d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 101d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 105d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 105d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 105d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 109d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 109d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $109 114d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.87 · official $526.87 (match) · 520 history records