Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AB 0xab5f…aab9 crypto 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,150 (+1%) realized +$2,913 · open +$237
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%243W / 116L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$919per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,712
7 days+$2,832
14 days+$2,730
30 days+$3,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$1,166
other 19% +$4,308
world 18% −$2,700
politics 9% +$4,424
sports 4% −$1,355
culture 2% +$503
tech 2% −$2,851
economics 2% +$58
weather 0% +$45
finance 0% +$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 52% +7.5%
≤30d 33 +14.2% +3.4% 61% 48% +4.8%
≤90d 54 +10.9% +0.4% 69% 37% -0.2%
all 359 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 26% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 26% -8.5%
10% -18.4% 19% -17.2%
15% -26.3% 14% -25.2%
20% -33.5% 11% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,367) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$204 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$3,300
Realized+$2,913
Unrealized+$237
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses243 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)359 / 364
History coverage576d
Avg bet$919
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1,164 $1,410 +$246 (+21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $904 $803 −$101 (-11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $690 $695 +$5 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $211 $266 +$55 (+26%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $94 $126 +$32 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,367 +$133 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $81 +$119 +146%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $859 +$141 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $378 −$372 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,020 +$580 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,682 +$550 +33%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $115 +$95 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $632 +$168 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $838 +$362 +43%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,182 +$528 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $344 −$32 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 +$146 +270%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,387 +$181 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,854 +$400 +14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $320 +$3 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 +$78 +186%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 +$261 +338%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $139 −$76 -54%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $887 +$117 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $104 −$101 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,007 +$104 +5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $199 +$171 +86%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $2,000 +$61 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $1,900 +$100 +5%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $7,008 −$13 -0%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $1,203 +$84 +7%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $1,005 +$128 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $7,006 +$149 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 11 $5,002 +$42 +1%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 May 05 $2,790 +$210 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $6,740 +$388 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 22 $5,823 +$918 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 12 $2,591 +$250 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 12 $2,953 +$28 +1%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 76 million or more views on day 6? Apr 11 $850 +$150 +18%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 66 and 67 million views on day Apr 10 $1,580 +$119 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 10 $2,325 +$171 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $1,365 +$135 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 53 million views on day 2 Apr 07 $2,720 +$280 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 06 $4,388 +$290 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $696 10m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 86¢ $859 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $81 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1,367 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 27¢ $276 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $102 15h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 40¢ $100 17h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $217 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $380 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $346 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $386 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $30 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $3 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $9 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $22 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $720 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $132 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $234 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $279 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $115 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $632 44h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $48 46h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 46h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 46h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $50 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $265 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $131 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,300.32 · official $3,300.43 (match) · 1851 history records