Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab5f…f76e sports 512 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$574 (-4%) realized −$572 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%234W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$153
14 days−$54
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$721
other 2% −$40
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -36.3% -42.4% 29% 29% -28.3%
≤30d 144 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 42% -14.8%
≤90d 366 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 41% -14.3%
all 511 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 40% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 40% -14.9%
10% -26.0% 37% -23.1%
15% -33.2% 34% -30.5%
20% -39.7% 27% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$572
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses234 / 277
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions1
Markets (closed)511 / 512
History coverage144d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 52¢ 50¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $50 −$13 -26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $12 −$2 -17%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $47 +$32 +69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +54%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $30 +$20 +67%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$2 +77%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $37 +$46 +126%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $97 −$13 -14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $56 +$37 +66%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $6 −$3 -47%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $38 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $43 −$5 -12%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $40 +$22 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $60 +$11 +18%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $16 −$6 -40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +84%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 +$14 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +103%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $29 +$15 +52%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $13 −$4 -32%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $20 −$6 -30%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $30 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 52¢ $37 35m
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul SELL The Huns Esports 43¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 57¢ $50 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 8h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 13h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 57¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 48¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 56¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $13 21h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Sashi Esport 56¢ $7 22h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL Sashi Esport 97¢ $67 23h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $40 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 32h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $7 37h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 93¢ $27 40h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 51¢ $15 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 100¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 59¢ $30 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.27 · official $34.27 (match) · 1087 history records