Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab61…4d36 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$4
other 22% +$2
politics 13% +$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 8% -10.4%
≤30d 14 -0.7% -10.1% 21% 7% -10.3%
≤90d 14 -0.7% -10.1% 21% 7% -10.3%
all 36 +3.7% -6.1% 44% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -15.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -23.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage448d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $61 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 −$3 -22%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 18 $1 +$2 +131%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 10 $4 $0 -6%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $26 $0 +1%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 08 $30 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 08 $30 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $27 +$1 +2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $27 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $33 2h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 14h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $13 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $18 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $13 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $36 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records