Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab63…8f4b crypto 478 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,908 (-7%) realized −$8,393 · open +$485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%242W / 233L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,861
7 days+$1,861
14 days+$1,861
30 days+$1,861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$8,278
other 15% +$2,175
sports 5% +$145
politics 1% −$14
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 27% +0.8%
≤30d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 27% +0.8%
≤90d 475 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 38% -15.3%
all 475 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 38% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 28% -23.4%
15% -30.8% 21% -30.8%
20% -37.6% 16% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$109 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$4,485
Realized−$8,393
Unrealized+$485
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses242 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)475 / 478
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$221
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $3,000 $2,886 −$114 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,030 +$30 (+3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $568 +$568 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5,009 +$291 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,020 +$980 +48%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $4,004 +$118 +3%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$193 +189%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $2,304 +$140 +6%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $510 −$36 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $519 −$411 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 19 $207 −$183 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 19 $119 −$100 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 19 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 19 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 19 $42 +$46 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 19 $272 −$272 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 19 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 19 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 19 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 19 $53 +$62 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 15 $102 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 15 $306 −$15 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 15 $21 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 15 $307 +$104 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 15 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 15 $374 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 15 $105 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 15 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 14 $53 +$95 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 14 $104 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 14 $95 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $606 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $1,002 13m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,031 50m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5,300 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,000 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5,009 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $4,122 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $295 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 95¢ $2,003 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $1,014 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $2,444 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $2,304 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $1,000 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 31¢ $474 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $510 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,020 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $104 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $178 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $342 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $24 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $207 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $109 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $13 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,484.52 · official $4,519.19 (match) · 3500 history records