Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab63…2597 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% $0
other 19% −$6
politics 7% $0
weather 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 20% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 10% -9.4%
all 33 -2.0% -11.4% 52% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -10.5%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage473d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $79 −$2 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $43 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -46%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Aug 10 $6 $0 +5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $13 −$6 -44%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $14 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $46 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $46 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $35 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 85¢ $44 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 85¢ $44 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $40 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $23 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $21 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $44 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $43 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $41 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $1 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $16 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $24 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records