Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab65…4a03 sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,946 (-5%) realized −$5,954 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%61W / 69L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$422est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,551
7 days+$1,165
14 days−$1,281
30 days−$2,381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$5,579
other 2% −$433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.5% +5.4% 60% 60% +48.3%
≤30d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 45% -16.2%
≤90d 48 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 40% -28.5%
all 130 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 40% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 40% -14.1%
10% -16.3% 33% -22.3%
15% -24.4% 31% -29.8%
20% -31.8% 28% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,056) neutral
Persistence
early +27% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$741 vs −$753 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$5,954
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses61 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$422
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage169d
Avg bet$908
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $157 $165 +$8 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $712 +$1,422 +200%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $300 +$129 +43%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $303 +$115 +38%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $79 −$78 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $431 −$423 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $10,051 −$10,000 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $8,880 +$1,462 +16%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3,542 +$2,361 +67%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,304 +$4,623 +354%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $550 −$544 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $101 +$64 +63%
Syria leading at halftime? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $400 −$394 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $935 +$90 +10%
Luxembourg vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $175 +$9 +5%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $1,589 −$1,565 -98%
Iceland vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $732 −$724 -99%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 07 $308 +$48 +16%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $813 +$974 +120%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 04 $119 −$118 -99%
CSKA Moscow vs. Unics Kazan Jun 02 $959 +$187 +20%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $10 +$3 +27%
LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5 May 06 $1,156 −$1,138 -98%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs Dripmen (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen May 05 $101 −$3 -3%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5 May 04 $183 +$355 +194%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Apr 30 $148 −$148 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 24 $516 −$512 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Apr 20 $196 −$193 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 20 $473 +$512 +108%
Oeiras 3: Borna Gojo vs Rei Sakamoto Apr 15 $339 −$12 -3%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Apr 08 $43 −$43 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 08 $92 −$92 -100%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Urhobo (+1.5) Apr 08 $715 −$715 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 08 $147 −$147 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Apr 08 $1,083 −$1,083 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $640 −$640 -100%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $1,161 +$309 +27%
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Apr 02 $187 +$170 +91%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $4,608 −$4,426 -96%
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Mar 28 $714 −$184 -26%
Miami Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Belinda Bencic Mar 28 $240 −$240 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-1.5) Mar 28 $1,203 −$1,203 -100%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Qingdao Eagles Mar 27 $210 +$77 +37%
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Mar 27 $172 +$228 +133%
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-03-22? Mar 27 $171 +$439 +257%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5 Mar 27 $1,432 +$1,823 +127%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 4 Winner Mar 23 $963 −$255 -26%
Counter-Strike: Legion vs Boring Players (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $161 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $12 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $11 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $11 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $13 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $20 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $22 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $14 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $9 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $109 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $45 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $7 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $39 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $9 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $39 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $36 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $29 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $45 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $14 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $16 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $9 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $75 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $27 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $25 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $17 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.78 · official $164.78 (match) · 739 history records