Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab68…1bb1 sports 434 markets active 3d ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 556d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,963 (-16%) realized −$7,323 · open +$360
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%187W / 232L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$118
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$7,202
politics 18% −$374
other 12% +$1,887
crypto 1% −$214
world 0% −$50
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 15 +116.2% +95.6% 60% 60% -27.8%
≤90d 67 +31.5% +18.9% 40% 37% -16.3%
all 419 +1.5% -8.1% 45% 37% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 37% -24.8%
10% -16.9% 30% -32.0%
15% -25.0% 22% -38.6%
20% -32.3% 17% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$75 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$4,368
Realized−$7,323
Unrealized+$360
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses187 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions15
Markets (closed)419 / 434
History coverage557d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $750 $940 +$190 (+25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $675 +$375 (+125%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $360 $420 +$60 (+17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $338 +$172 (+105%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $325 $330 +$5 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $225 +$75 (+50%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $270 $218 −$52 (-19%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $175 −$175 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $175 −$175 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $198 $165 −$33 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $210 $165 −$45 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $130 $145 +$15 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $98 −$52 (-35%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $8 +$32 +426%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $2 +$3 +132%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $2 +$25 +1259%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $5 +$10 +198%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $5 +$11 +211%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 27 $15 +$5 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 27 $15 +$8 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $58 −$57 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $152 +$19 +12%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $837 −$208 -25%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $91 −$90 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $667 +$265 +40%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $328 −$248 -76%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 07 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $583 −$580 -99%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $192 +$529 +275%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $112 +$254 +226%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $41 +$6 +15%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $160 +$105 +65%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $63 −$62 -98%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $200 −$161 -81%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $30 −$29 -97%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $35 −$34 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $50 −$26 -51%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $0 $0 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $30 +$34 +114%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Apr 23 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $25 −$18 -74%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $210 +$35 +17%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $30 +$5 +18%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $560 +$166 +30%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $210 +$19 +9%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $30 +$116 +387%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $20 +$156 +779%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $20 −$18 -88%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $151 −$23 -15%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 13 $20 −$9 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $274 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,367.50 · official $4,367.50 (match) · 3500 history records