Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
AB 0xab69…2283 other 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 430d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$5,070 (+10%) realized +$5,019 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate77%253W / 77L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$318
7 days+$327
14 days+$414
30 days+$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$4,280
world 25% +$37
politics 12% +$536
culture 7% +$63
sports 5% +$38
weather 3% +$53
tech 1% +$52
crypto 0% +$29
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.3% +1.6% 70% 30% +18.6%
≤30d 19 +79.7% +62.6% 79% 42% +10.4%
≤90d 77 +42.2% +28.7% 68% 32% +4.6%
all 330 +37.1% +24.0% 77% 39% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.0% 39% -0.6%
10% +12.1% 25% -10.1%
15% +1.3% 20% -18.8%
20% -8.6% 16% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$26 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$5,019
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses253 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)330 / 336
History coverage430d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 51¢ 82¢ $51 $82 +$31 (+61%)
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 13¢ 21¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 22 $49 −$35 -72%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $301 +$20 +7%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $28 +$2 +6%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $201 +$15 +7%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $259 +$326 +126%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $48 −$9 -18%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $36 −$22 -62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$15 +101%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? Jun 19 $58 +$6 +10%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 18 $56 +$11 +19%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $92 +$8 +9%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $20 +$18 +92%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $34 +$60 +178%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 12 $250 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 31 $20 +$7 +36%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 31 $136 −$97 -71%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 +$91 +307%
Will Uganda have an Ebola case in 2026? May 25 $250 +$5 +2%
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 22 $45 +$204 +454%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 21 $512 +$120 +23%
Ebola emergency by June 30? May 17 $9 +$141 +1492%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 07 $12 −$1 -7%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 06 $7 −$3 -42%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? May 05 $12 −$12 -99%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 02 $159 −$5 -3%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 02 $307 +$24 +8%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 02 $84 −$14 -17%
Google reports Gemini monthly active users above 800M in Q1? May 01 $35 +$8 +24%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Will President Trump sign 7 or more pieces of legislation into law in Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 30 $80 +$2 +2%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Apr 30 $252 +$10 +4%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 26 $2 +$9 +425%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Apr 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $100 +$3 +2%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $343 +$11 +3%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 20 $50 +$4 +7%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $32 −$31 -97%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 19 $200 −$104 -52%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 19 $36 −$35 -97%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 18 $37 +$9 +25%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Apr 18 $25 −$24 -96%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 18 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16? Apr 17 $392 +$8 +2%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Apr 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes $4 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $321 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $301 2h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 100¢ $395 5h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 100¢ $50 5h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 75¢ $140 2d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 50¢ $241 3d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 10¢ $16 3d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes $14 3d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes $29 3d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes $4 3d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes $3 3d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL No 46¢ $58 3d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL No 46¢ $7 3d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL No 46¢ $1 3d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 4d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 4d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL No 46¢ $0 4d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 86¢ $34 4d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 5d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 5d
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $58 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.24 · official $241.24 (match) · 1274 history records