Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xab6c…88d9 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 744d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,269 (+4%) realized +$1,839 · open +$430
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate79%44W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$1,074per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$1,915
sports 13% −$215
other 12% +$506
world 2% +$51
politics 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 56 -5.9% -14.8% 79% 27% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 27% -6.8%
10% -23.0% 25% -15.7%
15% -30.4% 18% -23.9%
20% -37.2% 11% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,220) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$267 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

744d coverage
Net worth$2,849
Realized+$1,839
Unrealized+$430
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses44 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage744d
Avg bet$1,074
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 72¢ $500 $894 +$394 (+79%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $469 $516 +$47 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $450 $444 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Mar 03 $11 +$4 +39%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $473 −$396 -84%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 25 $216 +$84 +39%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 24 $1,220 +$780 +64%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 23 $678 −$678 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 21 $26 +$14 +52%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 21 $85 +$57 +67%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $474 −$474 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $303 −$303 -100%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 17 $268 +$84 +31%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $2,023 +$731 +36%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 16 $1,632 +$576 +35%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $379 +$93 +25%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $1,000 +$624 +62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 02 $3,000 +$667 +22%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026? Jan 31 $2,500 +$223 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $3,189 +$32 +1%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31? Jan 01 $1,500 +$53 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 27 $1,605 +$51 +3%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 24 $500 −$326 -65%
Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $3,122 +$67 +2%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 19 $504 +$18 +4%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $30 +$8 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 18 $84 −$62 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 17 $655 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,900 on December 16? Dec 16 $1,150 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 14 $1,147 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 12 Dec 12 $1,145 +$2 +0%
Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch? Dec 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 10 Dec 10 $1,134 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 9? Dec 09 $1,131 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on December 8? Dec 08 $1,130 +$1 +0%
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 07 $1,119 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 5 Dec 05 $1,113 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 4 Dec 04 $1,111 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 01 $3,319 +$7 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 01 $3,338 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 01 $3,600 +$7 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 01 $4,997 +$21 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 01 $6,000 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,700 on November 25? Nov 25 $405 +$1 +0%
Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 25? Nov 25 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 24? Nov 24 $402 +$2 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 November 17-23? Nov 24 $400 +$2 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in November? Nov 23 $973 −$67 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $469 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,010 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $361 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $124 2d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL Team Falcons 49¢ $28 111d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL Team Falcons 49¢ $49 111d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $443 111d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $28 111d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $2 111d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Team Liquid 72¢ $216 112d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Tundra Esports 72¢ $7 112d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Tundra Esports 72¢ $4 112d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 61¢ $1,220 114d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY PARIVISION 68¢ $10 114d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY PARIVISION 68¢ $14 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 61¢ $3 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 61¢ $35 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 61¢ $10 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 61¢ $2 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 61¢ $8 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 61¢ $59 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 49¢ $47 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 50¢ $96 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 51¢ $10 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 51¢ $153 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 51¢ $178 114d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY MOUZ 51¢ $76 114d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 55¢ $10 117d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 55¢ $33 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,849.28 · official $2,849.28 (match) · 228 history records