Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab77…487e world 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%35W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$24
other 24% −$1
politics 14% +$1
sports 10% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 31 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 68 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 1% -9.9%
all 107 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses35 / 72
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage310d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 85¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $155 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$3 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -15%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $116 −$6 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $81 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $108 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $349 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $177 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $303 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $88 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $247 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $82 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $84 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $18 +$1 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $75 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $50 −$5 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $171 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $175 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $168 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $93 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $22 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $77 +$2 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $134 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $182 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $71 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $46 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $25 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $73 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $4 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $77 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $77 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $77 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $71 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $71 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $60 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $70 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $70 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $70 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $65 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $73 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $73 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $73 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.81 · official $36.27 (match) · 465 history records