Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab77…be6a crypto 1453 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$463 (+1%) realized +$477 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%936W / 515L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day81.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,340
other 6% −$292
sports 3% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -5.0% -14.1% 63% 48% -15.1%
≤30d 1451 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 44% -11.8%
≤90d 1451 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 44% -11.8%
all 1451 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 44% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 44% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 31% -20.3%
15% -28.0% 20% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 14% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$477
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses936 / 515
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1451 / 1453
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day81.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 47¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$21 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$7 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $78 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.86 · official $23.57 · 3500 history records