Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab7a…4169 crypto 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$765 (+10%) realized +$753 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%92W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day143.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$1,307
other 21% −$1,074
sports 7% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 -21.8% -29.3% 33% 29% -7.1%
≤30d 275 -21.8% -29.3% 33% 29% -7.1%
≤90d 275 -21.8% -29.3% 33% 29% -7.1%
all 275 -21.8% -29.3% 33% 29% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 29% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 25% -16.0%
15% -42.2% 21% -24.1%
20% -47.9% 17% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$23 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$753
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses92 / 183
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions7
Markets (closed)275 / 283
History coverage7d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day143.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 48¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 62¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+180%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +14%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $89 −$61 -68%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $12 −$4 -35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$7 +29%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $18 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +30%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$4 -31%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $24 −$3 -14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 +$10 +9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $38 +$34 +91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +75%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 $0 +22%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $3 +$8 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 $0 +15%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$9 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $82 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $71 +$27 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $85 +$71 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $118 −$100 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 33m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 34m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 35m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $11 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $6 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $20 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $16 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 23¢ $7 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $29 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.70 · official $81.70 (match) · 1048 history records