trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 04 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? | Apr 01 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Trump meets with Carney in March? | Mar 28 | $18 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | Mar 26 | $18 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? | Mar 22 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | Mar 20 | $10 | +$8 | +84% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 17% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 29% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -13.9% | -22.1% | 25% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 16 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 56% | 6% | -6.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 6% | -6.5% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 6% | -15.4% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 6% | -23.6% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 6% | -31.1% |