trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $230 | $197 | −$33 (-14%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $66 | +$16 (+32%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $50 | $48 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 36¢ | 34¢ | $50 | $48 | −$2 (-4%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $110 | $0 | −$110 (-100%) |
| Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? | Jun 13 | $21 | −$4 | -22% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $158 | +$87 | +55% |
| Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? | Jun 13 | $21 | −$20 | -94% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $53 | −$16 | -29% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -23.9% | -31.2% | 25% | 25% | +7.3% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -23.9% | -31.2% | 25% | 25% | +7.3% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -23.9% | -31.2% | 25% | 25% | +7.3% |
| all | 4 | -23.9% | -31.2% | 25% | 25% | +7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.2% | 25% | +7.3% |
| 10% | -37.8% | 25% | -3.0% |
| 15% | -43.8% | 25% | -12.4% |
| 20% | -49.3% | 25% | -21.0% |