Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:34:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab80…5ff3 crypto 738 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$128 (-1%) realized −$127 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%475W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day125.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$26
14 days−$250
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 531 -1.9% -11.2% 63% 63% -9.9%
≤30d 752 -4.1% -13.3% 63% 60% -11.6%
≤90d 752 -4.1% -13.3% 63% 60% -11.6%
all 752 -4.1% -13.3% 63% 60% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 60% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 47% -20.0%
15% -29.1% 43% -27.8%
20% -36.1% 22% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses475 / 277
Open positions2
Markets (closed)752 / 738
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day125.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 64¢ 62¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 68¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 194 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$14 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$15 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.31 · official $12.31 (match) · 3500 history records