Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab80…f3d8 crypto 60 markets active 18h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$137 (-31%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$132
world 1% −$6
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -29.9% -36.6% 32% 32% -40.1%
≤30d 60 -29.9% -36.6% 32% 32% -40.1%
≤90d 60 -29.9% -36.6% 32% 32% -40.1%
all 60 -29.9% -36.6% 32% 32% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 32% -40.1%
10% -42.6% 30% -45.8%
15% -48.2% 28% -51.1%
20% -53.3% 23% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$16 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$49 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 18h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records