Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

AB 0xab82…1353 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$197 (+27%) realized +$204 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$3

7 days−$48

14 days+$189

30 days+$189

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-5.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-19.0%	-26.7%	37%	37%	-24.5%
≤30d	22	+4.9%	-5.1%	45%	45%	+33.3%
≤90d	22	+4.9%	-5.1%	45%	45%	+33.3%
all	22	+4.9%	-5.1%	45%	45%	+33.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.1%	45%	+33.3%
10%	-14.1%	45%	+20.5%
15%	-22.4%	45%	+8.9%
20%	-30.0%	41%	-1.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +32% → late -22% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$13 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized+$204

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 33

History coverage8d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	81¢	64¢	$34	$27	−$7 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$25	+$10	+40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$16	+$9	+57%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$16	−$15	-99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 22	$24	−$24	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$23	−$23	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$29	+$19	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$28	+$30	+105%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$20	+$15	+76%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	Jun 18	$20	−$17	-83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$1	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 18	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 18	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$17	+316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$5	+92%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$18	+89%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$20	+$21	+105%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$72	+$197	+276%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	81¢	$34	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$34	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$25	4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$16	22h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	64¢	$16	27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN	BUY	2¢	$0	2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	57¢	$24	3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$23	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$47	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	60¢	$29	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	34¢	$29	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	58¢	$40	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	37¢	$31	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	37¢	$24	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	16¢	$10	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	44¢	$61	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia:	BUY	34¢	$20	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$28	5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	SELL Yes	3¢	$3	6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	6d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5	BUY Under	56¢	$20	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	SELL Up	11¢	$4	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$5	6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	36¢	$38	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.19 · official $26.76 (match) · 51 history records