Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab90…e314 other 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$810 (-0%) realized −$807 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate54%262W / 221L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$584per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$465
7 days+$424
14 days+$409
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$193
politics 29% −$252
sports 25% −$701
economics 6% −$10
crypto 5% −$44
culture 1% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +92.4% +74.1% 30% 22% +5.4%
≤30d 43 +66.7% +50.8% 37% 23% -5.3%
≤90d 120 +22.1% +10.4% 53% 12% -8.3%
all 483 -5.0% -14.1% 54% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 8% -9.8%
10% -22.3% 7% -18.4%
15% -29.8% 6% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$798) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$807
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses262 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)483 / 486
History coverage624d
Avg bet$584
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-82%)
DR Congo leading at halftime? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$6 +10%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $45 +$10 +23%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $398 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $12 +$88 +712%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $13 +$87 +650%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$190 +1823%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $43 +$158 +369%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 +$162 +413%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $539 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,078 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $539 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 09 $50 −$16 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $500 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $500 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $998 $0 -0%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 05 $0 +$1 +350%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $809 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $898 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $101 +$14 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 26 $400 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $799 $0 +0%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-05-29? May 26 $1 $0 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $400 $0 -0%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 19 $13 +$3 +20%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $500 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 18 $20 +$8 +41%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 17 $49 +$52 +105%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 17 $20 +$17 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $938 $0 +0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 17 $31 +$26 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $400 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 46m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 46m
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 45¢ $35 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $50 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 16h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $398 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $96 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $166 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $136 24h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 40h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 44h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.45 (match) · 2370 history records