Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AB 0xab90…5793 sports 430 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,068 (-4%) realized −$2,066 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%268W / 156L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$772
14 days+$1,050
30 days+$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,502
other 8% −$491
crypto 1% −$33
politics 1% −$165
economics 0% −$10
world 0% −$12
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.0% -17.7% 78% 44% +1.3%
≤30d 39 -8.2% -16.9% 74% 51% -4.6%
≤90d 106 -8.5% -17.2% 70% 61% -11.0%
all 424 -8.2% -17.0% 63% 58% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 58% -13.1%
10% -24.9% 44% -21.4%
15% -32.2% 24% -29.0%
20% -38.8% 13% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$85 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$2,066
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses268 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions6
Markets (closed)424 / 430
History coverage237d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$25 +25%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,021 +$279 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,107 +$58 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,001 +$334 +33%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,001 +$108 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,024 +$85 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $985 +$86 +9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $822 +$79 +10%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +24%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $200 +$50 +25%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $101 +$60 +60%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $922 +$81 +9%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $862 +$62 +7%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $787 +$75 +10%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $181 −$179 -99%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $157 +$23 +15%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 +$34 +34%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $112 +$11 +10%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $105 +$7 +6%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $74 +$32 +44%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $61 +$12 +20%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 0.5 May 31 $71 +$12 +18%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $579 −$44 -8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 0.5 May 29 $463 −$463 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $361 +$75 +21%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 1.5 May 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 25 $100 +$23 +23%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $100 +$24 +24%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $100 +$20 +20%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 May 23 $101 +$19 +19%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5 May 22 $100 +$21 +20%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $100 +$23 +23%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $100 +$30 +30%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $101 +$39 +39%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 May 18 $93 +$14 +15%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5 May 17 $321 +$73 +23%
Karlsruher SC vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5 May 17 $204 +$46 +23%
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 0.5 May 17 $202 +$71 +35%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5 May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 12 $100 +$26 +26%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 May 12 $101 +$23 +23%
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 May 12 $100 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $16 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $16 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $17 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,021 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $103 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $100 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $1,045 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1,006 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $842 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.11 · official $13.11 (match) · 1285 history records