Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab96…989f sports 371 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,009 (-8%) realized −$9,009 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%156W / 207L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$1,584est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$313
14 days−$1,095
30 days−$1,705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$9,692
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.6% +18.1% 62% 62% -20.9%
≤30d 121 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 44% -13.0%
≤90d 363 -17.6% -25.4% 43% 40% -17.5%
all 363 -17.6% -25.4% 43% 40% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 40% -17.5%
10% -32.5% 38% -25.4%
15% -39.1% 33% -32.6%
20% -45.0% 26% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$272 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,117
Realized−$9,009
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses156 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,584
Open positions8
Markets (closed)363 / 371
History coverage70d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 79¢ 78¢ $276 $275 −$2 (-1%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs VP.Prodigy 50¢ 50¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs HOTU 63¢ 64¢ $182 $183 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Rooster 22¢ 22¢ $160 $166 +$6 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs JiJieHao 62¢ 62¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 72¢ 68¢ $86 $82 −$4 (-5%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Shopify Rebellion Black 69¢ 69¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs summer bear 53¢ 50¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 191 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 +$41 +152%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$82 +152%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $90 +$144 +161%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $82 +$103 +126%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $302 −$297 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$9 +28%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 13 $10 +$11 +104%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $485 +$531 +109%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $286 +$185 +65%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $36 −$35 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $105 −$103 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $711 −$698 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $287 −$285 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 10 $475 −$468 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $323 −$320 -99%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $286 −$282 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $99 −$96 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $99 −$97 -97%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $85 +$233 +276%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $139 +$300 +216%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 08 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 08 $78 −$77 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $404 +$10 +2%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $105 −$30 -28%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $54 +$15 +27%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $602 +$75 +12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $172 +$47 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $271 +$46 +17%
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $500 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 25 $373 +$866 +232%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $129 +$233 +180%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series May 25 $152 +$98 +65%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 25 $474 −$468 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa (BO3) - European Pro League Regul May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 25 $375 −$369 -98%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters May 25 $94 −$92 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $630 +$748 +119%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2,072 −$2,051 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $853 −$839 -98%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Ser May 24 $467 −$458 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - XPortal Playoff May 24 $444 +$510 +115%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi May 24 $750 +$807 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 79¢ $90 10m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 79¢ $94 16m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY VP.Prodigy 51¢ $108 17m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 69¢ $44 21m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 79¢ $94 22m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 21¢ $52 22m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY VP.Prodigy 49¢ $146 23m
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 63¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 72¢ $87 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 63¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 22¢ $112 1h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY JiJieHao 62¢ $92 1h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play BUY summer bear 53¢ $27 2h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 45¢ $73 40h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $43 46h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $143 46h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $26 47h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $26 47h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $43 2d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 39¢ $27 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 39¢ $27 2d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 37¢ $37 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 39¢ $27 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 43¢ $41 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 43¢ $13 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $27 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $18 6d
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 60¢ $286 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $18 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 38¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,117.02 · official $1,118.22 (match) · 1157 history records