Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab96…8d69 sports 621 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$37 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%439W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$11
14 days−$38
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$44
crypto 19% −$33
other 15% +$17
weather 2% +$3
politics 1% +$5
world 1% −$2
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +1.6% -8.1% 77% 77% -8.3%
≤30d 600 +0.1% -9.4% 73% 73% -11.9%
≤90d 600 +0.1% -9.4% 73% 73% -11.9%
all 600 +0.1% -9.4% 73% 73% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 73% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 57% -20.4%
15% -26.0% 29% -28.1%
20% -33.2% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses439 / 161
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions21
Markets (closed)600 / 621
History coverage23d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 82¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 66¢ 94¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+42%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 83¢ 57¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 84¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? No 84¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 82¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 68¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 69¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+27%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 66¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $6 +$1 +26%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$3 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $11 +$3 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $6 +$1 +26%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +29%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +23%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 84¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 73¢ $5 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 74¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 82¢ $6 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 84¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $6 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 70¢ $6 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $5 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 58¢ $5 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $6 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 75¢ $5 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $6 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY No 86¢ $5 14h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 69¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY No 83¢ $5 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $5 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 81¢ $6 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 68¢ $6 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $6 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $6 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $5 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 79¢ $6 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.90 · official $107.95 (match) · 1338 history records