Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xab96…ec9e other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 39L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$5
other 30% −$1
politics 13% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -8.1%
all 58 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.94 per $1 lost it wins $6.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage268d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $9 +$1 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $35 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $25 +$2 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $29 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $16 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $6 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 22 $6 $0 -5%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $38 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $38 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $35 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $15 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $12 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $25 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $28 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $29 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $33 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $32 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.15 · official $37.19 (match) · 269 history records