Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab9a…cacb world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
other 33% $0
politics 9% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 50 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage477d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $15 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $82 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $64 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $44 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Dec 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad May 05 $2 $0 -9%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? May 05 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 25 $3 $0 +10%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 12 $1 $0 -12%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 11 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 29 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $18 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Israel retaliates against Houthis by Friday? Mar 20 $19 $0 -1%
St. Mary's vs. Loyola Marymount Mar 20 $16 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $39 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $38 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $2 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $27 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $11 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $19 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 39h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $12 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.76 · official $38.74 (match) · 165 history records