Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AB 0xab9f…bc1b other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$133 (-3%) realized −$132 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$19
politics 45% −$6
sports 9% −$109
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -11.3% -19.8% 26% 16% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 16% -12.9%
10% -27.4% 16% -21.2%
15% -34.5% 16% -28.8%
20% -40.9% 16% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$1,042
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage633d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $534 $534 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $509 $509 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Kings vs. Capitals Nov 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 17 $10 +$13 +133%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Nov 11 $10 −$10 -100%
DET vs. BAL: O/U 54.5 Sep 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Sep 22 $22 +$22 +100%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 17 $11 +$11 +100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Adrian Zandberg be the next President of Poland? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. Utah Jan 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Giants get the second pick? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $102 +$101 +99%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $15 −$15 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $509 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $534 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 24h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $512 24h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $528 24h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $529 34h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $513 34h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,031 34h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 2d
Kings vs. Capitals BUY Kings 47¢ $9 219d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Warriors 43¢ $10 222d
Grizzlies vs. Celtics BUY Grizzlies 39¢ $10 225d
DET vs. BAL: O/U 54.5 BUY Under 53¢ $42 275d
Giants vs. Diamondbacks BUY Giants 50¢ $22 280d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Blue Jays 50¢ $11 281d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $5 283d
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 334d
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 342d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 366d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 401d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 402d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 404d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $5 405d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 405d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 406d
Will Adrian Zandberg be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 407d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 409d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,042.48 · official $1,042.48 (match) · 64 history records