Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xaba1…daf5 crypto 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-4%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%111W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$17
other 33% +$2
politics 18% −$140
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 27 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 93 -1.8% -11.2% 97% 0% -16.7%
all 117 -2.4% -11.7% 95% 1% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 1% -13.9%
10% -20.2% 1% -22.1%
15% -27.9% 1% -29.7%
20% -34.9% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$28 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses111 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage557d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 19? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 May 4-10? May 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 8? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $21 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 19d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 22d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $27 24d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 99¢ $20 24d
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese p BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 99¢ $17 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 28d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 28d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $16 29d
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F BUY No 100¢ $28 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 31d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 32d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.31 · official $59.31 (match) · 241 history records