Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xaba2…17fd economics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 51% −$8
world 22% −$8
crypto 18% −$9
tech 8% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 7 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 7 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -14.6%
all 7 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -14.6%
10% -23.2% 0% -22.8%
15% -30.6% 0% -30.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 29 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $100 −$9 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 29 $100 −$7 -6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 29 $100 −$4 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 37m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $96 38m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 39m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $91 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $93 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $96 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 83¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.86 · official $6.86 (match) · 21 history records