Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xaba2…c0e2
politics · 63 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$46 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)59 / 63
History coverage608d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 4 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -96%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1 +$4 +328%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $4 +$4 +108%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $12 −$1 -6%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $2 −$1 -59%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 18 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $1 +$2 +231%
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Barcelona beat Espanyol? May 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? May 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April? Apr 09 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $2 +$1 +43%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%? Feb 24 $6 −$4 -56%
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Feb 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday? Feb 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Feb 15 $1 $0 -46%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Feb 03 $6 +$13 +215%
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31? Feb 03 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 01 $7 −$5 -66%
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024? Dec 22 $3 $0 +11%
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-08? Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Assad leaves Syria before 2025? Dec 08 $3 +$1 +49%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1.0%? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.0%-1.5%? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the match between Real Sociedad and Ajax end in a draw? Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State? Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State? Nov 16 $1 +$2 +170%
Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 3.0%-4.0%? Nov 13 $1 +$2 +240%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 36% −$20
other 26% $0
world 26% −$18
sports 6% +$4
tech 3% −$7
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 14d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 62d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 67d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 70d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 70d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 70d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 70d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 70d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 70d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 70d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 70d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 70d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 70d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 150d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? SELL No 99¢ $6 349d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? BUY No 89¢ $5 353d
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 391d
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 391d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 392d
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 3 +62.2% +46.7% 100% 67% +42.8%
≤90d 9 +39.7% +26.4% 56% 44% +9.2%
all 59 -16.7% -24.6% 39% 36% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 36% -29.2%
10% -31.8% 32% -36.0%
15% -38.4% 25% -42.2%
20% -44.4% 20% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.18 · official $4.18 (match) · 146 history records