Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xaba4…871a crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$474
other 16% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 42% -26.8%
≤30d 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 42% -26.8%
≤90d 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 42% -26.8%
all 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 42% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 42% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 33% -33.8%
15% -35.6% 33% -40.2%
20% -41.9% 33% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$170 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $323 −$110 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $681 −$650 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $375 −$277 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $182 +$136 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $67 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $68 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$34 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $131 −$121 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $264 +$527 +199%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $397 +$52 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $53 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $47 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $136 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $14 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $83 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records